Podcast February 21, 2025

Adapting to Shifting Tariffs and Trade Policies: A Guide for Businesses in Uncertain Times

International Trade is in a Constant State of Flux

The world of international trade has been in a constant state of flux, especially in recent weeks. The onset of new tariffs, shifting regulations, and evolving trade agreements have left businesses grappling with uncertainty. In this environment, understanding every facet of your supply chain is more crucial than ever. Steve Weyer, President of GSCC Inc., joined Jeff Hamilton on the podcast to discuss the latest developments and provide insight into what companies can do to navigate these challenges.

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Understanding the Supply Chain

One of the most important aspects of navigating global supply chains is understanding the full structure of how products are sourced, from the factory to the final consumer. It’s easy to overlook, but a clear understanding of the players in the chain — such as factory owners, distributors, and importers — is critical. Every link in the chain adds value, but also adds its margin. Businesses that only handle marketing and distribution need to understand where their products come from to assess risks and identify areas for negotiation.

In most cases, products come with a country of origin label, required by customs laws. While most products carry this information (except for certain items like ball bearings and pillow feathers), it’s essential for businesses to understand the duty rates attached to their imports based on their country of origin. For instance, if a tariff on Chinese goods increases by 10%, businesses should prepare for a potential 15% price increase from their suppliers. Without knowledge of these dynamics, companies may find themselves facing unexpected costs that could significantly impact their margins.

The Role of Importers and Distributors

Importers and distributors are in a pivotal position when tariffs change. Understanding who is selling to you, and how they’re responding to changes in tariffs and pricing, is key. Large retailers with strong negotiating power, like Walmart, push back on suppliers in times of increased tariffs. They demand manufacturers absorb some of the tariff costs instead of passing them all onto consumers. Importers who are buying at factory doors, or directly from ports, are in a better position to manage tariff costs since their landed cost will be lower. For instance, paying for goods directly at the factory rather than at the port eliminates unnecessary shipping and trucking costs, making the overall price point more manageable.

Distributors and importers need to stay informed about their suppliers’ pricing and materials changes. This knowledge is crucial when dealing with unexpected price hikes or unavailable products. Companies that understand their supply chains well are in a stronger position to negotiate better prices and avoid supply shortages.

Sourcing and Regional Flexibility

For companies that have sales across different regions, the ability to shift sourcing can provide a significant advantage. While the bulk of products might come from countries facing higher tariffs, it’s worth exploring sourcing options closer to where your products are sold. For example, sourcing from Southeast Asia or Latin America for North American markets could help mitigate the financial impact of Chinese tariffs.

Businesses with regional sourcing offices can diversify their supply chains by shifting sourcing strategies based on local market needs and regulatory changes. This flexibility allows them to offset losses from regions where tariffs are high, helping to balance out their bottom line. For companies that can do this, adapting quickly to shifting trade dynamics will be crucial.

Scenario Planning and Margin Management

When tariff rates increase, understanding the impact on each product’s profitability is essential. Businesses should perform detailed scenario planning by looking at each SKU’s country of origin, landed cost, and duty rates. For example, a SKU that used to be duty-free or subject to a lower rate could now face a 15% or higher duty, impacting gross margins. Building a matrix to model different duty rate scenarios will provide a clearer picture of potential financial losses and areas where companies can adjust.

Analyzing product bundles is also a key strategy. Often, businesses sell products as part of a bundle. For instance, yoga pants from Vietnam, a top from Thailand, and a water bottle from China might be sold together as a package. If the water bottle faces a high tariff and becomes unprofitable, the company might consider discontinuing the bottle. However, discontinuing a product might hurt the sales of higher-margin items in the same bundle. This is why having a deep understanding of SKU-level profitability is vital. It may mean accepting a temporary loss on some products as a “loss leader,” but balancing it out with higher-margin items.

Long-Term Planning: Diversification of Sourcing Locations

When it comes to long-term strategies, companies must look beyond just adjusting prices or bundling products. To mitigate the risk of rising tariffs, businesses should consider diversifying their supply chains by sourcing from countries with favorable trade terms or lower political risk. For instance, countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Costa Rica are becoming increasingly attractive alternatives to China. These countries are less likely to face the same tariffs and may even have trade agreements in place that reduce import costs.

However, diversifying your supply chain isn’t just about shifting to new countries. It’s about discussing these changes with your suppliers, particularly those with whom you’ve had long-term relationships. Companies that have built strong, trust-based relationships with suppliers over years can approach them about relocating manufacturing plants to other countries, such as Vietnam or Panama, which could help circumvent tariff issues. This kind of strategic shift may take time, but it’s necessary for companies looking to safeguard their supply chains in an uncertain geopolitical climate.

Sound Bite: “The free trade global prosperity world is ending, and it’s ending right now. We see it in real time. We see it in real time. So we’re going to see the world breaking up into blocks,” Steve says.

The Shifting Global Trade Landscape

The current political landscape is also affecting the broader global trade order. Steve highlights a shift from the post-WWII Bretton Woods Agreement that has historically promoted free trade and global economic cooperation. This system helped raise billions out of poverty and established a period of economic prosperity. However, this system is now under threat. With geopolitical tensions rising and trade relations becoming more competitive, the world may soon see a shift towards fragmented trade blocks. This shift could create instability, leading to more protectionist measures and potentially disrupting long-standing international relationships.

In light of these changes, businesses must take a proactive approach to risk management. The uncertainty around global trade policies and tariffs will only continue, so being prepared for disruptions — whether they’re price increases, supply chain delays, or political tensions — will give companies a competitive edge.

Sound Bite: “Trade is very much a thing at the whim of the government. We cannot assume that things will be the way they were just because they were, and the government can change things on short notice,” Steve says.

Key Takeaways

Businesses facing the complexities of international supply chains must act now to secure their position in an increasingly uncertain global environment. Understanding your supply chain, assessing tariff impacts, exploring regional sourcing opportunities, and engaging in long-term planning with suppliers are all essential steps. With the right preparation, companies can mitigate risks, optimize their operations, and thrive amidst the challenges of a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

What do you think?

Let us know by emailing [email protected] or sending us a message on our LinkedIn page.

To reach out to Steve, check out his LinkedIn and send him a message!


Keywords: International trade, tariffs, NAFTA, de minimis, supply chain, global trade, trade policy, geopolitical risks, import, export, customs, duties, regulations, compliance, logistics, sourcing, manufacturing, nearshoring, reshoring, risk management, trade agreements, globalization, world order, economic blocs, technology transfer, foreign investment, developing countries


[00:00:00.000] 

Hey, Steve, how are you doing?

 

[00:00:01.710] 

Hello. Good to see you, Jeff.

 

[00:00:03.290] 

I didn’t think we’d be back to talk about tariffs again soon, but it seemed like a topic that was worth another discussion.

 

[00:00:11.540] 

Definitely.

 

[00:00:12.700] 

So joining me today is Steve Weyer, who is the President of GSCC. He’s got over 30 years of experience helping companies tackle issues like tariffs. And so given all of the talk recently, we thought that we would follow up our previous episode, which talked a lot about Section 321 and potential ramifications of the Trump presidency with another one that was going to be a little more focused on some of the topics that we’ve seen come up in the last few weeks. So Steve, maybe we’re taping this mid-February, so listeners, you’ll probably hear it towards the end of the month. What has been going on the last couple of weeks? It seems like the news is changing every day, especially with regards to Canada and Mexico. And I know with a lot of our customers, there’s been concerns and fears and people are starting to think about what they should be doing. But can you summarize what we’ve heard over the last few weeks?

 

[00:01:06.720] 

Sure. Yeah, I think if we said it in one word, it’s uncertainty and more uncertainty to come, which for any business, anywhere in the world, it’s the most undesirable thing. Not knowing what rules and policies are means that you can’t do short term decisions. You can’t understand what your prices will be, and it’s harder to make medium term and longer term planning. So what we know, prior to the US President coming into power on the 20th of January, there’s a lot of talk, threats of punitive tariffs against our trading partners in the US with Canada, with Mexico, with European Union, and with a geopolitical strategic rival with China. Lots of talk, but when the new President came into power, there were immediate threats, specifically against Canada and Mexico, which are NAFTA partners and allies to the north and the south United States. Those threats were for additional high tariffs. The amount of tariff that was supposed to be put on had been bandied about at different levels. And there were last minute negotiations that, in fact, the tariffs never came into play for US and Mexico. Sorry, for Canada and for Mexico. There’s a 30-day pause, which we’re into day three or four of that 30-day pause, where the US President and the Mexican President and the US President and the Canadian Prime Minister agreed that they would both sides would take concrete measures to address some of the concerns that the US had around border security, around drugs, around immigration.

 

[00:02:48.770] 

And so we don’t know what will happen. If the US President feels that progress is being made and after 30 days is satisfied with the progress that was made so far and the plans put forth by Canada and Mexico to continue that progress, then tariffs could be postponed indefinitely. But we won’t know. It’s possible for other reasons, the US President could say, I don’t like the progress. So if I during this 30 day period, I’m reneging on my agreement to hold things for 30 days and not put tariffs. So there’s a lot of uncertainty for the two key trading partners. Mexico, actually, for the second a year in a row, is the largest trading partner with US. It surpassed China in total import and export trade with the United States. So it’s really critical not only for Mexico, which is very reliant on the US, but for US, which is very reliant on Mexico as a huge source of products for us and services that we get this right and we work it out in an amicable way. So that’s what’s happened with the two trading partners, North and South, within the North America realm.

 

[00:03:58.440] 

Trump initially said he He wants to have a better relationship with China. He indicated a desire to travel to China to meet with Xi Jinping, to try to work things out, not only on trade, but on fentanyl, on many different issues, the Russia issue, China’s support of Russia, et cetera. And they had some good overtures, and China responded very positively to that. But then the US President put a 10 % across the board tariff on China with very little notice period. So again, lots of uncertainty on what’s going to happen with this very large trade volume back and forth between US and China. Us buys lots of consumer goods from China, lots of industrial products, medical products, many different products, a wide variety of products from China, all of that is being taxed now an additional 10% tariff. China is going to retaliate. They’re putting together a package of retaliation to increase the import duty rate on US goods. I haven’t seen the list of what that is yet, but that will be coming very soon, and it will affect US exporters and US manufacturers. There’s talk that China is being very strategic about it, and they’re targeting specific states that are Republican-controlled and big Republican strongholds because they want to send a very punishing message.

 

[00:05:23.140] 

If you support these policies of the President in Congress, et cetera, your state will be punished by restrictions in the to export from your state to China. I wouldn’t say it’s getting dirty, but both sides are using whatever power they have to punish the other. That’s where we are with tariffs from the US caused by the US on key trading partners. European Union is on notice that they’re up next. The US President said, you’re up next. We’re going to do something with Europe. We don’t know what that is. We don’t know how much, when, what commodities, which country, specifically, or it’s all European Union, we just don’t know. So there’s a lot of uncertainty. Europe is concerned naturally as well because their economies are not doing well. So that’s the latest as of today.

 

[00:06:13.290] 

And what do we think the end goal is for the new administration? Because it seems like the tariffs are being applied to everyone, whether you’re the greatest ally or not. So Is it a negotiating chip, or is there really a long term vision around protectionism, manufacturing in the US, or is it just Trump is an agent of chaos? What do you think is the most likely outcome here?

 

[00:06:46.450] 

I think it’s all the above. I think it’s definitely a negotiation tool. So far, the negotiation tool, I have to say, whether I like it or not, has been effective. There are Mexican troops on the Mexican border right now that has never happened in history because Mexico is feeling the pressure from the US President. So they’ve deployed troops on their northern border to prevent, we’ll see if it works, to prevent immigrants, legal or illegal, to cross in, whether they’re Mexican immigrants trying to emigrate or if they’re from Central and South America or from other countries. They’re making it difficult. Mexico is cooperating to make it difficult. Are they stopping any drugs flowing across the border? It’s not known how much complicity there is with divisions of the Mexican mentality in the drug trade. Also, the border, the land border is a physical border. There are thousands of underground tunnels from Mexico into the United States. That’s a huge flow of illegal drugs coming in, and those are much harder to detect and to stop. But at least some movement has been made sufficient enough that the US President feels that he’s willing to give 30 days of pause.

 

[00:07:56.710] 

Canada also made some large promises to prevent drug flow and immigrant flow, which is a much smaller scale from Canada to the US to a sufficient level to the US President. So it definitely from a negotiation tactic has initially worked We’ll see what the impacts are. I think that your point around disruption, agent of chaos, that’s definitely there. It’s not known how strategically this has been thought out and played out over the different over years in terms of economic impact, jobs, inflation, desirability. If American people start complaining that their cheap consumer goods got way more expensive and that. So it’s really hard to know what intent is. It’s hard to predict the impact, but we will see.

 

[00:08:47.370] 

I think what we want to talk about is we’re going to get into this in a little bit around whether or not this comes back in 30 days. Clearly, people need to be focusing on this a little bit more if it’s going to impact their businesses. But Before we get into that, can we talk a little bit? This goes back to our last episode, Section 321. There have been some changes there. Do you want to just describe what’s going on there? Because that’s a pretty sizable impact, I think. I think because of the Mexico-Canada thing, maybe it wasn’t talked about as much, but it has a massive impact.

 

[00:09:18.400] 

Absolutely. What is Section 321? Section 321 is part of the US Customs Law that says that any product coming into the country, any mode, hand-carried on an airplane, if you’re a traveler coming back to the US or entering into the US as a foreign citizen, coming across on a ship, coming across as a parcel shipment, US Postal Service or any of the commercial parcel companies, FedEx, DHL, UPS, whatever. Under $800 US value, it’s duty free. Duty free, regardless of the harmonized tariff code and minimal paperwork and no customer scrutiny. So in 2024, 1. 3 billion individual packages, mostly of consumer goods, under $800 value, float into the US duty free. It’s trillions of dollars, I wouldn’t say trillion, but billions of dollars of commercial value coming in. If one package is $10, it’s already $13 billion of goods coming in.

 

[00:10:22.900] 

And that’s for all countries, that 1. 3 billion?

 

[00:10:24.750] 

All countries. However, one-third of that total, one-third of the 1. 3 billion shipments in 2024 into the US using Demisril were from China and Hong Kong. So by far, it’s consumer goods, industrial goods that are under that $800 threshold. No scrutiny from customs, no checking for fakes or counterfeits or drugs. It’s just packages flowing in, flowing in. Unless the package is leaking or badly broken, nobody knows what’s in it. It could be declared as a plush toy, but actually it’s something something else. So that has been stopped. As I said in the last podcast, two weeks ago, there’s no more de minimis. Every shipment coming in will be inspected by customs. Every shipment coming in, regardless of country of origin will pay duties based on the existing duty rates. The Chinese shipments, because the President put a 10%, initially a 10% additional duty on Chinese products, they will have that additional 10%. So if a Chinese product had a 5 % duty rate previously, if it was under $800 US import value, it didn’t need to pay the 5 % duty rate. But now the $800 gone away, there is no more de minimis. A Chinese product will pay the 5 % duty rate, plus they’ll pay an additional 10 % duty rate.

 

[00:11:49.460] 

So everything that was coming in before is much more expensive now by at least 10 %, but maybe incrementally more.

 

[00:11:55.590] 

Yeah, wow.

 

[00:11:57.270] 

So the business model has been turned on his head. The other impact is 1. 3 billion packages a year, that means that Customs has a lot more work to do. Customs brokers have to file entries. An entry is $85 an entry. So the US government is going to pick up $85… Or sorry, Customs Brokers in the US will pick up $85 on 1. 3 billion shipments if the volume continues. So it’s a boon to US Customs Brokers will be able to charge the entry fee, but it’s going to slow things down. So if If your customers clearance was same day product flows in, you order something on Monday, it shows up at your door in the US on Friday, it’s going to be much longer because everything’s going to be under scrutiny. Huge disruption in trade.

 

[00:12:44.250] 

Yeah. I I will probably, as consumers, we won’t see the ramifications immediately, but I imagine pretty quickly you’re going to start to see some things that are either more expensive or things are taking longer or availability of products that originally came from Asia are just not going to be there, right?

 

[00:13:01.860] 

Yeah. So if we go back to uncertainty, yesterday, Trade Administration instructed Customs and the US Postal Service 100 % halt on all US Postal Service shipments from Hong Kong and China, full stop, basically blocking mail from Hong Kong and China, which a large portion of these de minimis shipments came in under because mail is cheaper than FedEx UPS or DHL. But then they rescinded that order 24 hours later. So talk about uncertainty. We could have blockages to trade where certain avenues of trade called US Postal Service are stopped. That’s also a possibility by presidential win.

 

[00:13:49.370] 

But it might change in 24 hours, too.

 

[00:13:52.100] 

It could, again. We don’t know. So we’ve sanctioned, US has sanctioned Russia. I cannot ship something to Russia. I cannot put something in a package I propose to Russia. I cannot put it on FedEx, EATL, UPS if I wanted to send a friend, a theoretical friend in Russia, something because of Russian sanctions. So trade is very much a thing at the whim of the government. We cannot assume that things will be the way they were just because they were, the government can change things on any short notice they like.

 

[00:14:21.250] 

Well, it makes things very difficult. Again, we have customers that are importing goods from all sorts of different countries. So what What’s the roadmap or what’s the game plan? If things change every 24 hours, there’s only so much you can do. But I think any intelligent person is saying to themselves, What should I be doing over the next four years to prepare myself for different different scenarios. So I wonder, different companies or different buyers, what steps would you be proposing them to take to prepare for whatever it is they should be preparing for?

 

[00:14:56.620] 

Good question. I think the most important thing is every company that’s selling products in their home country, say it’s US, Canada may have its own policies towards its trading partners. But any country, any company that’s selling products that came from a foreign source really needs to understand their business model. Let’s say there are five different types of companies from the most simple. I’m a marketing company that has a really good web presence, and I am able to source through the web, online, a variety of products. But I know nothing about importing. I know nothing about shipping, logistics. I know nothing about managing product specs overseas or factories or managing labor. Nothing. I don’t know If I’m going to sell anything about it. I just know that I’ve been lucky. The way that the global trade in the world has been set up is I can find suppliers of stuff. I don’t know anything about the background suppliers to the specs I want, the quantities they want. I place an order, I pay for it, and the stuff just shows up. It just shows up in a large quantity or in small individual companies. And I’m a really good marketing company.

 

[00:16:04.660] 

I’ve got great web presence, and I just sell my products. If you’re that type of company, you’re at the most risk. What that type of company needs to do is understand Who is it? Who are you buying from? Are you buying from a distributor in your home country in the US that has a warehouse full of stuff that this was imported? And who is that distributor buying from? Are they buying from another importer that just imports and sells the distributors? Who is that importer buying from? Are they buying from their buying office overseas? Are they buying from a trader in China? Are they buying from a factory, factory owner or factory act? Because every international supply chain, there’s at least five or six different parties in there, each party taking its margin, each party doing its part and adding value. That’s the nature of how business works. If you’re at that tail end of the supply chain and you’re just a marketing company, you need to understand who those players are and find out where your product came from. Every single product except one or two types, ball bearings and I think, pillow feathers, have country of origin marking, must be written on the product.

 

[00:17:11.890] 

If you have a consumer good, you flip over your laptop, you flip over your… You look at the basketball you bought, the plush toy, it’ll say made in China, it’ll say made in Vietnam. That’s a that’s a customs law. So you need to look at every single skew that you’re selling to your customers and understand where it came from. Then you need to find out what the duty rates are right now and if your product is facing this higher 10% duty. Because you know, you should know that very soon the party you buy from, that distributor in the US, the importer at the Port of LA or whatever, Is it going to probably come to you with a price increase. Now, if the China tariff went up 10% and they come with a 15% increase, you then have the power to say, wait a minute, why are you charging me 15 versus 10? And they may say, well, it was five before, but we were bringing under the de minimis rule, and so we paid the original five plus the 10 in my example. But you need to have that background or you have no way to even begin to negotiate or understand what your cost will be.

 

[00:18:11.800] 

If you’re a distributor importer, which is the second type, you need to know who you’re buying from. You’ve probably, your company people have probably made trips over to China and Hong Kong and know who some of the players are. But you need to understand from your overseas parties who are selling to you, what’s changing on their side? What are they doing to change the bill of materials mix? Or what do they project the price changes are going to be? And get some sense of that. The distributor importers, they’re going to have to have a negotiation with the parties they’re buying with to see who’s going to bear that cost. Because tariffs are borne by the importer, but the importer, if they’re a big importer, they’re going to push back on the manufacturer. Walmart is not just going to take a 10 % increase on China. They’re going to push back on their supply base China and say, look, you guys need to help me out because I will bear some of the cost in passing on the price increase to my consumers, but I’m also going to put pressure on you suppliers. China, your economy is not good.

 

[00:19:10.660] 

You need to produce more. There’s pressure on you. Let’s work out a deal. There is some pressure back on the manufacturing country and company to do something. The third category is importers who actually know what they’re doing. They know how to market, they know how to import, they know how to deal with US customs, they know how to bundle their goods right, they come up with the right HEC codes, the harmonized schedule codes. They actually buy at origin. They’re making the purchase at factory door, X factory in China, or FOB Port at Port of Yantian in Southern China, in Guandong province. They then are able to pay a price landed at that point at origin. The duty rate is calculated based on the first cost at the point where they bought the goods. If you buy at a port in China and there’s a thousand dollars of trucking involved from the port, from the factory, if you buy at the factory door, you can lower your cost a thousand dollars, and then you pay duty on that lower cost. You’re not paying duty on the domestic China trucking. So the more sophisticated buyers that are more involved in the supply chain, they can look at all their source points.

 

[00:20:21.090] 

Maybe they buy closer to the factory door versus the convenience of buying at the port. So understanding your cost is really important. The fifth category is if you have regional or overseas sourcing offices, as we touched on last time, where are your sales? If your sales are only in North America, it’s hard to do something. But if you have sales in Asia or EME or other regions around the world, you’re going to direct those sourcing from Asian sources directly to those end markets and has nothing to do with tariff set. So if you can source locally or source regionally and sell locally and regionally, then that’s helpful. They can also help offset your losses potentially into the North American market by balancing it out. So really, the first thing is understanding the type of company you are, what information you need to gather about the structure of how you source, and then trying to understand what the parameters of cost are is a really important exercise. You should do that right now. Right now. Don’t wait because all the uncertainty that we talked about.

 

[00:21:29.770] 

Yeah. It’s pretty… I think anyone listening to this will be able to figure that out where they are on the road map. And I think what you’re saying is if you’re in category one or two, you’re more at risk and you have more homework to do because you really don’t know the supply chain of your business as well as you should, right? Yeah.

 

[00:21:51.120] 

Because you may… Sorry, just to interrupt. You may have a call or a message or a response from the company you’re buying from saying, sorry, product’s not available anymore. What do you mean? It’s just not available. Or we can sell it to you, but now it’s 100 % higher than we were selling before. So now your negative margin or your margins are zero. And so, okay, well, what do you do?

 

[00:22:14.010] 

That’s the point.

 

[00:22:15.040] 

Yeah. It is to throw money on it and lose money. And that’s a shock that’s very real and it could happen tomorrow, literally tomorrow.

 

[00:22:24.790] 

If I’m in this middle ground category, which, again, if I think about lid customers, a lot of them are in the middle where they have a pretty good understanding of their supply chain, but maybe they don’t have a presence overseas, they’re probably not going to have the ability to switch import or switch suppliers overnight. What is the next step here? Let’s say we say, Hey, I’m here on the roadmap. Hey, Steve. Hey, Jeff. How can you guys help us out? What is our approach then to actually figure out a plan for them in terms of I mean, we call it sometimes between each other scenario planning, right? And modeling different… For any supply chain model that we build, there’s multiple scenarios that we look at. So how would we set that up for somebody like this?

 

[00:23:12.800] 

Yeah. I think the very first thing is you need to have your… This is like a virtual Excel spreadsheet. What are your SKUs? What are your top selling SKUs? How much revenue to generate from the SKUs? What was your landed cost on those SKUs? And then by definition, what is your gross margin on the SKUs? And then what’s the country of origin of those SKUs? That you know already, you just inherently. And then start looking at what is the current duty rate pre all of this happening? What is the current duty rate right now? Is it zero duty because you were bringing it under de minimis? That went away. So what is the new duty rate now for that country, looking up by HS code from that country of origin for that SKU, which has a HTS, Harmonized Tariff Schedule. You need to build that matrix out. Many companies don’t have that. I’m surprised. Even really large multinationals that I work with, they have SAP ERP systems. Their database doesn’t have embedded in it, HTS code, country of origin evaluation They have all the other apps to the SKUs, but they don’t have that. They have some guy in the import-export department that maintains a separate static spreadsheet to keep those.

 

[00:24:22.930] 

Really pulling all those together will tell you that, because then the next thing you can do is immediately start to flex and say, Okay, 5% duty, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and then accordingly, your margin is going down. Then you look at your top sales by SKU and say, What is the true dollar amount of that margin going down per SKU? There may be some SKUs, They say, Well, look, if it’s at 5 and 10%, we’re okay, but at 15, we’re going to lose money. So maybe we don’t sell that SKU anymore. But then you go further more granularly and say, Okay, when people buy this SKU, SKU A, do they also buy 90% Most of the time they buy B and C together because they’re like an accessory or it’s a kit, kitted items when they place the order. People purchase this, they also want this and this. Okay, so is then that SKU that’s going to be underwater at 15% beauty rate, is that a lost leader that you could still make margin on? Let’s say it’s yoga pants, yoga top, and water bottle. The water bottle comes from China, and that’s out of margin, but you’re making There’s really good margins on the yoga pants and the yoga top.

 

[00:25:32.520] 

The ladies who are buying this yoga clothes, they get the yoga pants from Vietnam and the yoga top from Thailand, but the bottle from China. But they always buy them together. If you don’t offer the yoga bottle, the water bottle anymore, you’re going to have a dent in your sales of the yoga top and the yoga pants, which have good margins that aren’t effective. So looking at that and figuring that out, and you may be in a loss later situation, and that’s okay because you’re looking at total margin. So We think the assortment is probably going to shift.

 

[00:26:04.150] 

It’s like, what is this minimum acceptable assortment that is going to still achieve? And probably some tough decisions, but being able to do analysis at the SKU level and figure out patterns is important because that will help. That’ll give you the ammo that you need to make the right decision there, right?

 

[00:26:21.960] 

Yes. And if a company can be very sophisticated, they can offer it up to the customers and say, look, we have to adjust our pricing because of the current policy for tariffs. And here’s a bundle that you purchased in the past, but we can’t offer this bundle anymore. Here’s an alternative bundle. We can be open to this. And sometimes just being straightforward and honest, consumers appreciate that, and they may say, okay, sure, maybe we won’t buy the water bottle anymore. We’ll just buy the yoga pants, yoga bottoms, whatever in that example. It could be the drill and the tool set that comes with the power drill and the tool set, whatever.

 

[00:27:05.410] 

Let’s keep the water bottle example for the next point, which is long term, we know we got a water bottle problem, right? So how do we solve for that? Are we looking at alternative sources for items that we think are going to be problematic? Like China, high tariff, high risk of that continuing for at least the next four years. Those are the kinds of decisions where you probably want a longer term plan, right?

 

[00:27:36.430] 

Yeah. And so I think if someone is comfortable with it and you have to force yourself to be comfortable with it, you set up a meeting with your key suppliers. Let’s say you’ve been dealing with China suppliers and Vietnam suppliers for 15 years, 20 years. You have a long relationship with them. You’re in that middle category of companies. So you get on the plane, you have a meeting with them. You go, look, let’s discuss this open and honestly, you guys are We’re under threat because of political, governmental issues. What if you set up, you Chinese suppliers, what if you set up manufacturing in Vietnam or Indonesia? It’s still a Chinese company there, but what if you did that? Because you know you’re getting pressure from your other European and other US consumers We’re not the only company buying from you. What would it take for you guys to move? And then you change legitimately and fairly change a country of origin to another country that’s not going to face those sanctions. What if you guys came and set up in Costa Rica or in Panama or some other country that’s closer, where there’s already an existing free trade agreement or something like that.

 

[00:28:34.790] 

And so it’s a longer term play. It’s not that I, as an importer in the US, need to completely change who I’m sourcing from. It’s where I’m sourcing, where I’m sourcing from, not who I’m sourcing from. And so that trend has already been happening for a long time. A lot of the big Chinese manufacturers have shifted. So Apple’s main supplier, Honghai, which is Foxconn, they moved to India. Foxconn is setting up plants in India, and Apple’s buying iPhones from Foxconn, Honghai in India. It’s a Taiwanese company, it happens to be. So having those discussions with your trade partners is important because what happens is over time, as politics change and different governments come into play, if you have a long relationship with suppliers over time, especially in Asia, they remember that and they’ll help you. We got through this thick and thin and we supported each other through thick and thin. It’s a give and take. It’s not just a short transactional thing as each administration changes. Those are the conversations you should also be having. And you got to get on the plane and go over there and spend the time.

 

[00:29:44.470] 

Good point. Steve, this is one more question, and this wasn’t on our agenda, but I’ll just give it to you. Just in reading about this and trying to understand sides of the political spectrum, I still don’t really understand who is going to benefit from all of this. I think in the short term, in the chaos, I think it’s probably no one, but I’m trying to unpack the long term or what benefit If it is for American citizens, what is the benefit or who’s winning in all of this ultimately?

 

[00:30:22.840] 

Yeah. So this is a really broad historical, gets into geopolitics in history. I strongly believe the entire world order of global trade is being reset. So since 1944, Bretton Woods Agreement in New Hampshire after World War II, Europe has devastated, Asia is devastated, Japan is nuclear bombed. Us is very powerful main country standing. It has 50 % of the world’s GDP. Us said, look, we’re going to marshal plan Europe. We’re going to give you guys tons of money. We’re going to let you rebuild, including Germany. We’re going to buy all the stuff you make, even with trade deficits. It’s fine. We’ll buy all your stuff because you need to get yourself back on your feet. We’re going to guarantee all the global trade lanes with safety, any chip can go anywhere. Japan, we’re going to rebuild you. Southeast Asia, we’ll give you tons of money, rebuild you. We’ll buy all the Japanese, Korean, all the products from Southeast Asia and set this new world order where the US was at the top. And And through these multilateral agreements that were formed, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the World Trade Organization, the UN, all these things were formed since that time, the Bretton Woods Agreement 1944.

 

[00:31:42.290] 

It’s continued, and it’s created this globalism and global trade. It’s raised billions of people out of poverty, and tariff rates have come down, and there’s been this enormous economic prosperity. There haven’t been major wars since then. There was the Korean War, there was the Vietnam War, but those were more regional wars and domestic wars, civil wars. But this world order of peace and free trade is starting to fray right now. It’s coming to an end. Russia invaded Ukraine. We’re seeing threats of US invading Panama and Iceland. Sorry, Greenland. There’s all these bad actors around the world. Things are starting to get straightened up. What the US President is saying, we’re going to take a more robust, aggressive role in the world, and we’re going to do America first. Right or wrong, I’m not going to make a comment on that, but this is the new world. The free trade global prosperity world is ending, and it’s ending right now. We see it in real time. We see it in real time. So we’re going to see the world breaking up into blocks, more selfish countries. If we’re fighting with our own allies in Europe and North America, what are we going to do with our enemies?

 

[00:32:56.710] 

I see things really going in not necessarily a good direction for the world.

 

[00:33:03.020] 

Well, I think that sums it up well, Steve. So thanks for the time. I’m sure in 4-6 weeks, we’ll have a whole new set of topics to discuss. Yeah.

 

[00:33:15.480] 

No, thank you.

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