Blog March 5, 2025

Navigating Disruptions: Post 2024 Peak Season Lessons to take into 2025

Peak Season Planning: Webinar Insights

The 2024 peak season was a defining moment for retailers, supply chain professionals, and logistics experts. Despite looming challenges such as port strikes and impending tariffs, the industry witnessed growth and an overall positive outlook compared to previous years. This success, however, didn’t happen by accident—it was the result of strategic planning, agility, and a deep understanding of risk management conditioned by catastrophic impact of COVID-19 on the industry.

Vivi Lynch, Managing Director at LIDD Supply Chain Consultants, Adi Karamcheti, Senior Consultant at Shipware, and Majeed Peffley, Senior Fulfillment Analyst at Shipware, came together for a webinar on February 11 to discuss insights from the 2024 peak season, continuing trends, and how to apply these strategies in 2025.

2024: The Year of Early and Agile Planning

One of the most prominent themes from 2024’s peak season was the shift toward early and agile planning. Companies reacted quickly to port strikes and tariff concerns early in the season by taking advanced inventory positions. Retailers chose to move that inventory with an earlier start to the promotional period, effectively smoothing out “peak” season and reducing focus on the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas sales window.

“Supply and demand were roughly at equilibrium, and there were some good reasons for that,” Adi says. “We saw a shift early on to planning and being agile. Retailers focused on winning sales early and adjusting throughout the peak shopping season rather than concentrating on trying to get everything delivered within the tight window between Black Friday and Christmas.”

This shift in sales strategy, which has been an industry topic mainstay for many years, was finally put into action.

“This shift toward early and agile planning is really years in the making,” Vivi says. “We had a critical event occur with COVID-19, and that forced many companies to rethink how they could be more flexible with their supply chains and execute on decisions.”

Improved Parcel Delivery Speeds and 2025 Opportunities

Another key takeaway from 2024 was the significant improvement in parcel delivery speeds. In November 2024, the average delivery time decreased to 3.7 days, representing a 27% improvement over the previous year. This change was the result of post-COVID-19 investments made by carriers in automation and fulfillment optimization, in the wake of increasing customer expectations.

However, the smoothing of 2024 peak demand meant that carriers, preparing for the surge of demand over the compressed seasonal period, were over-planned. As carriers begin to rationalize this excess capacity in 2025, there is an opportunity for companies to re-evaluate their carrier networks and potentially renegotiate contracts. Costs captured from carrier renegotiations could provide some offset of unavoidable tariffs.

“It’s always a good time to talk to your carriers and your carrier representatives about improving your agreements,” Adi says. “The carriers raise their rates every year like clockwork. As soon as you sign that agreement, kind of like a new car, when you drive it off the lot, it’s already lost value. Now is a great time to re-evaluate.”

Trend: Advanced Inventory Positioning

As companies look ahead to 2025 and tariff uncertainty, taking advanced inventory positions is a strategy to mitigate uncertain policy change.

Changes in inventory positions require careful consideration of warehousing and storage space. With more companies planning to advance inventory, storage space may become more limited, potentially driving up inventory costs due to increased demand.

However, the smoothing of fulfillment peaks and extended promotional periods could also be used to a strategic advantage – an opportunity to renegotiate your labor premiums with less spikey peak season.

Strong communication with your fulfillment network key to securing adequate space and labor to optimize costs, specifically understanding which markets have capacity.

“For some 3PLs, the shift has been a blessing in disguise,” Majeed says. “They have the space and are bringing in new customers at a rapid pace. The trick is identifying who has the space and who doesn’t, and that requires keeping an ear to the market.”

Understanding Risk Profile and Tolerance: The Key to Strategic Decision-Making

One of the most valuable lessons shared during the webinar was the importance of understanding your company’s risk profile and risk tolerance. Adi pointed out that many companies, in light of tariff challenges, are only now beginning to fully assess their risk tolerance and apply it to their decision-making processes.

“Understanding your company’s risk profile has a lot to do with what it is you’re buying, selling, and shipping,” Adi says. “And you really do need to think about long-term planning.”

These types of analyses can help companies benchmark operations in comparison to industry peers, allowing them to negotiate more effectively with service providers.

In addition to assessing risk, companies can explore options like Free Trade Zones to delay or reduce the immediate impact of tariffs and changes in De Minimis policy. By identifying these opportunities, companies can strategically manage their costs and mitigate the short-term effects of tariffs on their bottom line.

“Free trade zones are a fantastic solution if you have access to them,” Majeed says. “It’s kind of like a 401k versus a Roth IRA. When do you want to pay your taxes, now or later?”

What’s Next for 2025?

As companies navigate the evolving landscape of supply chain disruptions, tariffs, and shifting consumer expectations, staying agile remains key. Early planning, improved logistics, and a deep understanding of risk will be essential components of success in 2025.

The lessons learned from the 2024 peak season will shape how companies approach their supply chains moving forward. The focus must remain on staying ahead of challenges through proactive planning and strategic partnerships. That way, companies will not only survive but thrive in a complex and fast-changing environment.

About the Speakers:

Vivi Tran Lynch – Managing Director at LIDD Supply Chain Consultants. With over 20 years of experience, Vivi brings a wealth of knowledge in omni-channel supply chains and distribution networks.

Adi Karamcheti – Senior Consultant at Shipware, with more than two decades of expertise in small parcel pricing, revenue management, and strategy.

Majeed Peffley – Senior Fulfillment Analyst at Shipware, specializing in Fulfillment Optimization and Contract Negotiations.

For more insights and strategies on navigating tariffs and optimizing supply chains, stay tuned for upcoming webinars and resources from LIDD and Shipware.

Have any questions? Want to learn more? Get in touch with us directly:

Contact Vivi

Watch the webinar on demand here
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